By Team INVC | INVC NEWS
NEW DELHI, India | September 22, 2026 —
India has woken up to a dramatic weather divide this Tuesday. While the southwest monsoon has started packing its bags from parts of northwestern India, another powerful weather system over the Bay of Bengal is preparing to turn the rain tap wider across eastern and southern states.
For millions of people, September 22 could therefore look completely different depending on where they live.
Delhi-NCR may escape any major rain drama, but Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh face a much wetter day. Kerala also remains on alert, while thunderstorms and unsettled conditions could trouble parts of Maharashtra and other regions.
In short, the monsoon may be retreating from one corner of India, but it is certainly not finished with the country yet.
Bay of Bengal becomes the centre of the weather story
The biggest weather-maker today is a well-marked low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
The system is expected to strengthen as it moves west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast. IMD officials expect it to intensify into a depression and then a deep depression.
However, the latest assessment does not indicate that it will necessarily strengthen into a cyclonic storm.
That distinction matters.
A system does not need to become a cyclone to cause serious trouble. Deep depressions can still produce intense rainfall, strong winds, rough seas and local flooding, particularly near the coast.
Odisha gets ready — and the worst may still be ahead
Odisha enters Tuesday under a very heavy rainfall warning.
According to the India Meteorological Department’s September 22 warning, very heavy rain along with thunderstorms, lightning and squally weather is possible over the state today.
And Tuesday may only be the beginning.
IMD’s current warning chart escalates the rainfall threat to extremely heavy rain on September 23 and September 24, before the intensity begins easing gradually.
Several southern and coastal districts remain particularly vulnerable as the Bay of Bengal system approaches.
Authorities have already been told to maintain heightened preparedness because heavy rainfall could trigger waterlogging, local flooding, road disruption and other rain-related problems.
So, for Odisha, the weather message is simple: do not judge this system by Tuesday morning alone. The more intense phase may be yet to come.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh also moves into the firing line
Across the border, Coastal Andhra Pradesh also faces a difficult weather window.
IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall today, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and squally conditions in parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The threat is expected to intensify further.
The official forecast indicates the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall on September 23 and September 24, together with strong surface winds.
The system is expected to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast around September 23.
Districts including Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Krishna have been identified for a potentially intense spell as the system strengthens.
For coastal residents, fishermen and travellers, this is a period when changing local warnings deserve close attention.
Kerala still has no reason to put away the umbrella
Down south, Kerala remains firmly in the rain story.
Six districts — Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam and Thrissur — have been placed under an orange alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall.
The remaining districts are under lower-level rain warnings.
The alert carries added significance after flash flooding in Malappuram district caused fatalities following intense upstream rainfall.
The lesson from such episodes is important: rainfall at one location can sometimes create dangerous conditions downstream, even where the weather appears less severe at that moment.
Maharashtra: thunderstorms refuse to disappear
Maharashtra is also seeing an unsettled spell.
Mumbai, Thane and adjoining areas have faced rain, thunderstorms and lightning, with further spells possible as moist conditions persist.
Nashik has also witnessed a sharp burst of rain, and a yellow alert has been reported for the next couple of days.
This means commuters should not be fooled by a dry start to the day. September thunderstorms can develop quickly, and short but intense spells can create traffic problems far greater than their duration suggests.
Delhi-NCR: no big monsoon show for now
The weather story looks noticeably quieter in Delhi-NCR.
As the southwest monsoon begins withdrawing from northwestern India, the capital region is expected to remain largely dry, rather than joining the heavy-rain action seen farther east and south.
Warm and humid conditions may therefore remain the bigger irritation for residents.
The contrast is striking: while Odisha and Andhra Pradesh prepare for potentially severe rain, Delhi-NCR could go through Tuesday wondering where the monsoon disappeared.
That is September weather in India — one part of the country looks for an umbrella while another looks for relief from the heat.
Monsoon retreat has begun — but India is not done with rain
The southwest monsoon has started withdrawing from parts of western Rajasthan.
But calling this the “end of monsoon” across India would be far too early.
As of September 19, nationwide seasonal rainfall was reported around 15% below normal, while roughly 43% of India’s geographical area was experiencing rainfall deficiency.
At the same time, the Bay of Bengal continues to generate weather systems capable of producing major rain spells across eastern, central and southern India.
That is why late September can become deceptively complicated.
The monsoon withdraws geographically, but fresh low-pressure systems can still deliver days of intense rainfall elsewhere.
Today’s weather hotspots
For Tuesday, the strongest weather attention belongs to Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, where rainfall intensity is increasing.
Kerala also needs close monitoring because of heavy-rain warnings.
Parts of Maharashtra may see thunderstorms and rain, while eastern and central India could see changing conditions as the Bay system strengthens.
Delhi-NCR, meanwhile, sits on the quieter side of today’s national weather divide.
What happens next?
September 23 and 24 could prove more important than September 22.
IMD currently expects rainfall intensity to increase substantially over Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh as the Bay of Bengal system strengthens and moves closer to the coast.
That means today’s weather is not the climax of this story.
It may only be the opening act.
People in areas under heavy-rain or thunderstorm warnings should follow local IMD and disaster-management advisories, avoid waterlogged roads, stay away from exposed areas during lightning and reconsider unnecessary travel during intense rainfall.
India’s weather map today tells two stories at once: the monsoon is slowly saying goodbye in the northwest, while the Bay of Bengal is reminding the east and south that the rainy season still has plenty left to say.
