By Team INVC | INVC NEWS
WARSAW, Poland | September 12, 2026 —
Russia NATO Eastern Flank tensions are rising again after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Moscow could intensify provocations around Ukraine’s border crossings with European countries in the coming months.
Tusk linked his warning to two recent security incidents involving Ukraine’s borders with Moldova and Poland.
A deadly drone strike hit the Ukrainian side of the Starokozache border crossing with Moldova this week, while Tusk said Polish and Ukrainian services separately prevented a “direct threat” to a Poland-Ukraine crossing.
The Polish leader also said he had received a detailed briefing from CIA Director John Ratcliffe about potential security developments in the region.
However, Tusk did not disclose details of the reported threat to the Polish crossing or present evidence establishing Russian responsibility for that specific incident.
That distinction remains critical as fears grow over security along NATO and the European Union’s eastern frontier.
Tusk warns Europe to prepare for different scenarios
Speaking in Bratislava, Slovakia, Tusk said Poland expects further provocative actions around crossings connecting Ukraine with European countries.
Ukraine shares borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova to its west.
Four of those countries — Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania — belong to NATO.
Moldova is not a NATO member.
As a result, any serious incident spreading beyond Ukrainian territory can quickly raise questions about European security and NATO deterrence.
Tusk said Poland and Europe need to prepare for different scenarios not only on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield but across the EU’s eastern flank.
Deadly strike near Moldova raises concern
The warning follows a deadly attack at the Starokozache border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova.
Two people were killed when drones struck the Ukrainian side of the crossing.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu condemned Russia following the incident and warned that the war was reaching Moldova’s border.
The episode adds to a series of incidents around Moldova’s frontier with Ukraine.
Drone debris, nearby explosions and temporary border closures have increased security concerns in the small Eastern European country.
Moldova has pursued closer integration with the European Union while facing continuing pressure connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Poland says another threat was prevented
Tusk also disclosed that Polish and Ukrainian security services had cooperated to prevent what he described as a direct threat to one of Poland’s border crossings with Ukraine.
He provided few details.
Therefore, it remains unclear publicly what form the alleged threat took, which crossing was involved or who was responsible.
That uncertainty matters.
Poland’s warning should not be interpreted as confirmation that Russia attempted a direct military strike against Polish territory.
Instead, Warsaw is presenting the incident as part of a wider security pattern that it believes requires increased vigilance.
CIA briefing adds another layer
Tusk’s comments gained additional significance because he referred to intelligence received from CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
The Polish prime minister described the briefing as detailed and said it concerned possible developments over the coming months.
Ratcliffe recently visited Moscow for discussions with Russian intelligence counterparts.
Polish intelligence officials have also maintained close contact with their American counterparts.
Tusk said the information he received aligned with warnings he had already been issuing about the possibility of Russian provocations.
No public version of the intelligence assessment has been released.
Therefore, its specific conclusions remain unknown.
Why border crossings matter to Ukraine
Ukraine’s western border crossings are strategically important.
They carry civilian traffic, commercial goods and economic links between Ukraine and European markets.
Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian infrastructure during the war.
Attacks that disrupt transport or export routes can increase economic pressure on Kyiv even when they occur far from the main battlefield.
Border infrastructure also carries heightened political sensitivity because attacks near NATO or EU territory create the risk of spillover.
That makes Poland, Romania and other countries bordering Ukraine particularly alert to drone and missile activity.
Romania reports growing drone problem
Romania has also faced repeated security incidents linked to Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure near the Danube.
Authorities have reported drone incursions and discovered drone debris on Romanian territory.
Ukraine’s river ports and export infrastructure in the region have repeatedly come under attack.
Romania is both a NATO and European Union member.
Consequently, even unintended spillover creates diplomatic and military concerns.
The pattern demonstrates why Eastern European governments increasingly view Ukraine’s border infrastructure as part of a wider regional-security problem.
Moldova remains particularly exposed
Moldova faces an even more complicated situation.
Unlike Poland and Romania, Moldova does not benefit from NATO’s collective-defense guarantee.
The country also contains the separatist Transnistria region, where Russian troops remain present.
At the same time, Moldova has pursued closer ties with the European Union.
Recent drone incidents have therefore intensified an already difficult security debate inside the country.
President Sandu’s government argues that strengthening national defenses is necessary as the war continues close to Moldova’s territory.
Is NATO expecting a Russian attack?
Not currently, according to NATO’s recent public assessment.
An alliance official said in late August that Russia had increased hybrid activities in Europe but that NATO saw no imminent threat of attack at that time.
That assessment provides important context for Tusk’s latest warning.
Poland is urging preparation for possible provocations and hybrid operations.
That is different from saying NATO has concluded that a conventional Russian attack is imminent.
The distinction should remain clear as tensions increase.
Hybrid warfare is becoming a central concern
European governments increasingly worry about actions that fall below the threshold of conventional military conflict.
These can include cyberattacks, sabotage, GPS interference, disinformation, infrastructure disruption and covert operations.
Such activity creates a difficult problem for NATO.
A conventional armed attack against a member state can trigger the alliance’s Article 5 collective-defense mechanism.
Hybrid operations are often harder to attribute and may deliberately remain below that threshold.
That ambiguity can make them useful tools for testing an opponent’s defenses and political unity.
Undersea infrastructure is another pressure point
Concern about European infrastructure has already extended beyond land borders.
NATO allies recently disrupted what Western officials described as a Russian operation involving sensitive undersea infrastructure near Svalbard in the Arctic.
No cable was damaged in that episode.
However, the incident reinforced fears about the vulnerability of communications networks, energy infrastructure and other systems connecting NATO countries.
Europe has consequently increased surveillance of critical infrastructure across the Baltic, Arctic and other strategically important regions.
Poland wants permanent US military presence
The latest warning also comes as Poland pushes for a stronger long-term American military presence.
A US delegation has been examining possible locations for a permanent military base in Poland.
Warsaw has sought such a base for years.
Poland views permanent American forces as an important deterrent against potential Russian aggression.
The country has also become one of NATO’s biggest defense spenders and a major purchaser of US military equipment.
Its geographic position makes security particularly important.
Poland borders Ukraine, Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region.
Trump administration faces a European security decision
The question of American forces in Poland also places the Donald Trump administration at the center of NATO’s eastern-flank strategy.
Washington has been reassessing parts of its military posture in Europe.
At the same time, Poland argues that strengthening the eastern flank is necessary because Russia remains the region’s dominant security threat.
A permanent US base would carry both military and political significance.
It would signal a long-term American commitment to Polish security even if Washington adjusts deployments elsewhere in Europe.
Russia rejects Western accusations
Moscow has repeatedly rejected Western allegations that it is conducting or preparing sabotage operations against European countries.
Russian officials have accused Western governments of exaggerating the threat from Moscow.
Russia has also consistently blamed NATO expansion and Western support for Ukraine for worsening European security tensions.
Those competing narratives have become a central feature of the wider confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Why Poland’s warning matters
The immediate issue is not evidence of an impending Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Instead, the concern is whether the Ukraine war is creating an increasingly unstable security zone around Europe’s eastern borders.
Drone incidents near Moldova and Romania, threats to border infrastructure, suspected hybrid operations and concerns about undersea cables all contribute to that risk environment.
Poland believes those incidents could intensify.
NATO, meanwhile, continues to say it remains vigilant while stopping short of declaring an imminent conventional attack.
That leaves Europe facing a difficult challenge: strengthening deterrence without turning warnings about possible provocations into unsupported predictions of a wider war.
For Poland and its neighbors, however, the message from recent incidents is already clear.
Security threats once viewed primarily through the battlefield inside Ukraine are increasingly being assessed as a broader challenge for Europe’s eastern frontier.
