By Team INVC | INVC NEWS
NEW DELHI, India | September 11, 2026 —
ISRO Cyclone Alert has put the post-monsoon season in focus, with a new seasonal outlook indicating that two to three tropical cyclones may form over the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026.
The forecast comes from the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre, or MOSDAC, which is maintained by the Space Applications Centre of the Indian Space Research Organisation.
The October-to-December period is already one of the main cyclone seasons for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
However, a seasonal cyclone forecast does not mean that all predicted systems will hit the Indian coast.
Their tracks, intensity and landfall locations can only be assessed with much greater confidence once individual weather systems begin to form.
ISRO Issues Seasonal Cyclone Outlook
MOSDAC listed its latest Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean on September 8, 2026.
The outlook focuses on cyclone activity expected during the post-monsoon months of October, November and December.
Seasonal cyclone models assess broad atmospheric and ocean conditions months in advance.
They do not work like short-range landfall forecasts.
Instead, they estimate the likely number and overall activity of cyclones across a season.
Why October to December Is Important
The North Indian Ocean includes the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
Both basins can produce tropical cyclones.
However, the Bay of Bengal has historically produced more cyclones than the Arabian Sea.
Conditions become especially favorable during the post-monsoon period.
Warm sea-surface temperatures, moisture, atmospheric instability and changes in wind shear can support cyclone formation.
Research has found that the Bay of Bengal is particularly active during the October-to-December season.
Does ‘83% Higher’ Mean Cyclones Will Be 83% Stronger?
No.
That interpretation needs caution.
Cyclone activity is often measured with indices that combine several factors.
One of them is the Power Dissipation Index, or PDI.
PDI takes into account cyclone wind intensity, how long storms last and how many systems occur during a season.
Therefore, an increase in PDI does not automatically mean that every individual cyclone will have wind speeds 83% higher than normal.
It can instead reflect a combination of:
stronger storms,
longer-lasting storms,
more storms,
or all three.
This distinction is important when explaining the seasonal forecast to readers.
Could Coastal Areas Face Heavy Rain and Strong Winds?
Yes, but only if a cyclone or associated weather system approaches a coast.
Tropical cyclones can bring several hazards.
These include strong winds, intense rainfall, storm surge and coastal flooding.
However, the exact impact depends on the track and strength of each system.
A cyclone that stays over open water may cause little direct impact on India.
Another system may affect eastern or western coastal states if it moves toward land.
That is why seasonal predictions should not be treated as local warnings.
Which Areas Should Watch the Forecast Closely?
India’s eastern coastline usually faces greater cyclone exposure during the post-monsoon season.
States that often monitor Bay of Bengal systems include:
Odisha
West Bengal
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands can also face effects from developing systems.
On the western side, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala may need to watch Arabian Sea developments.
However, the seasonal outlook does not yet identify any specific state as a confirmed landfall target.
El Niño Could Add Another Weather Factor
The cyclone outlook comes as a strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific.
India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences has said El Niño could strengthen further during October–December 2026 and may reach a very strong category.
NOAA’s latest September update also says El Niño is strengthening.
It gives a 75% chance that the October–December event could exceed the strength of previous El Niño episodes in records dating back to 1950.
However, El Niño alone does not determine how many cyclones will form near India.
Several ocean and atmospheric factors interact.
What Controls Cyclone Formation?
Sea-surface temperature plays a major role.
Warm ocean water provides energy.
Atmospheric moisture is another factor.
Vertical wind shear can either support or disrupt a developing storm.
Ocean heat content also matters.
Scientists also monitor broader climate patterns, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The interaction of these conditions determines whether a low-pressure area develops into a depression or eventually a cyclone.
ISRO Research Has Developed Long-Range Cyclone Models
Scientists associated with ISRO’s Space Applications Centre have worked on seasonal cyclone prediction models for the North Indian Ocean.
Research published in the International Journal of Climatology found that models using atmospheric and ocean variables could predict post-monsoon cyclone frequency and PDI with high skill.
The research examined data including temperature, winds, humidity and atmospheric pressure.
This type of model allows agencies to provide an early seasonal signal months before individual storms develop.
What Should Coastal Residents Do Now?
There is no reason for panic based on a seasonal forecast alone.
Instead, coastal communities should treat the outlook as an early preparedness signal.
People living in cyclone-prone regions should follow official weather bulletins as the season approaches.
The India Meteorological Department issues cyclone warnings when systems actually develop.
State disaster management authorities also provide evacuation and safety instructions when necessary.
People should avoid relying on viral social-media maps or unofficial landfall predictions.
Seasonal Forecast Is Not a Landfall Warning
This is the most important point.
The ISRO-linked outlook predicts the overall cyclone activity for the North Indian Ocean season.
It does not currently say that three cyclones will definitely strike India.
It also does not identify exact dates, names or landfall locations.
More accurate forecasts become possible only after individual systems begin developing.
Why the Forecast Matters
October through December is a crucial period for cyclone preparedness in India.
Millions of people live along vulnerable coastal areas.
Ports, fisheries, shipping, agriculture and coastal infrastructure can also face disruption when a powerful cyclone approaches.
An early seasonal outlook gives governments and disaster-management agencies more time to review preparedness.
For the public, the key message is simple.
Two to three tropical cyclones may form over the North Indian Ocean during October–December 2026, but their exact strength, track and landfall risk remain uncertain.
Residents should therefore watch official forecasts rather than assume that every predicted cyclone will reach the Indian coast.
