{Arun Jaitley**}Two Different Agencies have conducted opinion polls in relation to the 2014 General Elections. I am not a great believer in the accuracy of the seat projections, particularly, if the same is conducted 3-4 months before the elections. However, since the agencies which have conducted the polls have a certain level of credibility, it can only be assumed that at this stage they are trying to catch the trend of the current level of the public opinion.
The polls indicate that the BJP is the front-runner. The highest that the BJP has ever had in the Lok Sabha elections is 183. The current indications show that the Party may surpass this figure on its own strength. Its current allies particularly the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal also seem to be doing well. The Congress Party appears to be nose-diving to its lowest ever tally. Its tally in 2014 may actually be in two digits. There will be a significant difference between the front-runner and the Party coming second.
There will be about 10 political Parties whose tally would be between 5 to 25 seats. The possibility of all these parties joining hands is impossible. The AIADMK and the DMK cannot be on the same side. The Trinamul Congress and the Left cannot be on the same side. The BSP and the Samajwadi Party cannot be together. Besides the BJP and the NDA Partners, some parties which occupy the non-BJP and the non-Left space in their States appear to be getting a significant tally. The AIADMK is poised to get a number of seats. The TDP is re-emerging and consolidating its vote-bank. The BJD is substantially holding on. The TMC is improving its current tally. The euphoria over the YSR Congress has declined but it is still picking up some seats in the Seemandhra region.
The JDU which recently positioned itself as an anti-BJP Party after a 17 year alliance with the BJP appears to be on the decline. The Lok Sabha defeat may even make the Bihar Government shaky. The UPA allies such as the National Conference and the NCP are conceding space in their states to their Opponents.
There is a significant increase in the BJP vote in TamilNadu and Odisha. The Party’s vote in Assam is reasonably intact. The Party appears to be going back in to double digits in States like Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. In the States of North and Central and West India, the strike rate of BJP has significantly increased. The most significant factor in these opinion polls has been that Narendra Modi’s acceptability as Prime Ministerial candidate is about 15 to 20 % higher than the BJP vote in each state. His ability to pull the Party up in strong areas and contribute to its vote percentage in the non-strong areas is evident. How else can we justify the projected 17% vote share in Tamil Nadu and 25% in Odisha.
Who then forms the Government? Is there any other contender other than the BJP and the NDA?
The possibility of smaller Parties cobbling up a group can never provide a stable Government. In any case, their numbers don’t add up. The Congress reduced to two digits can at best be the tail of any other alternative alliance. It cannot be the nucleus of the alliance. A logical conclusion is that a stable Government can only be the BJP led Government and the NDA. In terms of these indications, it should lead to a Government of greater NDA which Atalji had formed. A number of Parties who constituted the greater NDA are poised to do well. The Greater NDA should in addition to the Existing NDA parties comprise of regional Parties which occupy the Non-Congress space in their States. Such a formation truly represents India’s federal politics.
In the run-up to the Elections, decisive leadership, revival of the economy, and removal of corruption appear to be the key issues. These opinion polls have indicated that a stable Government will also be the key issue weighing on the minds of the people. Who else except the BJP and the greater NDA can provide a stable Government?
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** Arun Jaitley Leader of Opposition (Rajya Sabha )
* Disclaimer: The writer is a freelance journalist and the views expressed by the author in this feature are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of INVC.
