INVC,,
Delhi,,
According to India Meteorological Department, a temporary weakening of the monsoon current is likely during the next week with subdued rainfall activity over most parts of country except along the west coast including Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and over northeastern States. It further states n there will be no major advance of southwest monsoon would occur over eastern and central India during next one week. Fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over northeastern States and along the west coast with isolated heavy to very falls during first half of the week. Fairly widespread rainfall activity would also occur over West Bengal & Sikkim and scattered over Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa where as subdued rainfall activity would occur over interior peninsula and adjoining parts of the central India during the week. Weather over Northwest plains would remain mainly dry except isolated thunderstorm activity.
Monsoon flow and its sustenance is expected to be strengthened from 25th onwards with likely formation of a Low pressure over North Bay of Bengal. This may lead to increase in the rainfall activity over East and Central India. Also the east-west seasonal trough may establish which is likely to increase the thunderstorm activity over Gangetic plains.
The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 17 June been 3% below the Long Period Average (LPA). Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 11, normal over 12 and deficient / scanty over 13 subdivisions.
Current synoptic conditions suggests strong pressure gradient is prevailing along the west coast, an off-shore trough extends from south Gujarat coast to Kerala coast and a shallow shear zone extends from east-central Arabian Sea to North Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation lies over Bihar and adjoining areas in lower tropospheric levels.
Large scale features indicate the MJO signal continues to remain weak and the forecast from statistical models are not indicating OLR patterns during next one week.
Prognosis based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models output indicates that fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely the west coast and northeast India and subdued rain activity would occur over the rest of the country.
During this week, monsoon was active or vigorous over many parts of south peninsula, where the rainfall was above normal by 92%. However, rainfall over northeast India remained subdued during the week. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall was also experienced along the west coast during the week.
